From t08o@unb.ca Thu Apr  4 18:09:17 PST 1996
Article: 29867 of alt.revisionism
Path: nizkor.almanac.bc.ca!news.island.net!news.bctel.net!imci2!news.internetMCI.com!newsfeed.internetmci.com!csn!news-1.csn.net!torn!news.unb.ca!geol03.novlab.unb.ca!t08o
From: t08o@unb.ca (MORRISON  KEITH MURRAY)
Newsgroups: alt.revisionism
Subject: Hebrew Numerology, Tom Moran and His Ignorance
Date: Thu, 4 Apr 1996 18:41:34 GMT
Organization: University of New Brunswick
Lines: 239
Message-ID: 
References: <315bf687.2895426@news.pacificnet.net> <315df69a.25470157@news.srv.ualberta.ca> <4jle2c$5u9@wi.combase.com> <4jpj40$rmh@panix2.panix.com> <4jq4ht$i6p@wi.combase.com> <4ju1p9$eft@hackberry.zilker.net>
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It took 2 months but Tom "Dan Gannon" Moran finally reposted his oeuvre on 
Jewish population growth.  Just in case anyone who wasn't around before 
thought he was onto something, this response was posted later that same day.



--begin included text--



From: t08o@unb.ca (MORRISON  KEITH MURRAY)
Subject: Re: Hebrew Numerology
Date: Wed, 17 Jan 1996 01:07:14 GMT

In article <4dge36$ehj@zippy.cais.net> tm@pacificnet.net (tom moran) writes:

[deletia]
>       Of course fabricators can get themselves into problems when
>they carry the accounts too far. Just focusing on one book, say Yehuda
>Bauer's, "The History of the Holocaust", we can find in just a short
>span, a number of problems. He includes in his version of establishing
>a sufficient Jewish population "Table 2.1", "Jewish population
>(estimated)". In this table he has three verticle columns:

>   Year             Jews in Europe             Total Jews world wide
>   1650                700,000                     1,750,000
>   1700               1,000,000                    1,250,000
>   1750               1,250,000                    2,250,000
>   1800               1,500,000                    2,500,000
>   1825               2,730,000                    3,281,000
>   1840               3,600,000                    4,500,000
>   1850               4,127,000                    4,764,500
>   1860               5,200,000                    6,000,000
>"Source:Arthur Ruppin, Soziologie der Juden (Berlin, 1931), pp. 81,89"


>        Right in the beginning we can see the list showing that the European
>Jewish population increased 7 1/2 times, from 700,000 to 5,200,000 in
>just 210 years. In 1650 there were 700,000 in Europe and 1,050,000
>else where. In 1860 there were 5,200,000 in Europe and only 800,000
>else where. Seems there was a Jewish population explosion in Europe
>and a decline elsewhere. Or there was the explosion in Europe and many
>of those elsewhere migrated to Europe. Whichever, the source doesn't
>say.
>        Anyway it seems that Bauer's list has Jewish population expanding at
>an incredible rate between 1650 and 1860, where between 1800 and 1825
>alone the "estimated" Jewish population almost doubled from 1,500,000
>to 2,730,000 in the 25 year period, all this increase taking place
>during a time when the average life expectancy of man was about 50
>some years, further stressed by wars, famines and plagues, and the
>Jews undergoing "massive progroms".

[...]

>        ("Argumentum ad ignorantum: An argument purporting to demonstrate a
>point or to persuade people, which avails itself of facts and reasons
>the falsity or inadequacy of which is not readily diserned.")
>          
>        By the early 20th Century Bauer, using a map from map happy Gilbert,
>has the Jewish population up to 8,700,000 in Europe and 11,487,000
>world wide.
>        Its obvious that Holocaust books give consider effort to establishing
>Jewish populations in order to show that there were enough Jews in
>Europe to be killed and add up to 6,000,000.  Without such treatment
>the story would be more stressed than it is on other fronts.
>        As usual, in their blantant tossing around of terms and numbers, they
>include something that further throws suspicions on their claims, and
>in this case Bauer offers us a map from Martin Gilbert:


Wow!  A Holocaust book printed in *1931*, before Hitler came to power, 
before the first concentration camp was built, before Auschwitz.  That 
Ruppin guy must have been some prescient dude.

Idiot.

Enough of that, let us proceed to the numbers.

Population growth is exponential and proceeds according to the formula


                      P=PoE^(at)                     Eqn 1
where
    P = population after time t
    Po= original population
    E = exponential constant e (2.718281828...)
    t = time in years
    a = growth rate

Rearranging terms and taking the natural log of both sides of the equation, 
we get

                      Ln(P/Po)=at                    Eqn 2

>From  which

                      a=(Ln(P/Po))/t                 Eqn 3

comes naturally.

Given a European Jewish population of 700 000 in 1650 and 5 200 000 in 
1860,we have the formula we get 

                 P = 5 200 000
                 Po= 700 000
                 t = 210

Substituting into Equation 3, we get a=.00949 or a growth of 0.949% per 
year.

Massimo Livi-Bacci in _Storia Minima della Popolazione del Mondo_ (1989), 
(translated as _A Concise History of World population_, 1992, ISBN 1-55786-
269-9) estimated the total European population in 1600 to be 89 million and 
in 1850 to be 209 million, which equals a growth rate of 0.3415% per year.  
>From  this it would seem that Jews had a growth rate 3 times that of other 
Europeans.

However this is in error because just over 1 000 000 Jews were living 
outside Europe in 1650, whereas there were only 250 000 in 1700.  It is 
reasonable to assume that a large percentage of that population shifted to 
Europe.  Given that this is impossible to prove given Moran's figures, a 
more reasonable approach would be to use the total number of Jews worldwide.
Those figures give a population growth of 0.587% per year, still slightly 
greater than the European average but not excessive.

However, Table 1.3 on page 31 of the book shows some interesting figures.
The growth rate of the population in Europe from 1AD to 1750 was about .06%  
but jumped in 1750-1950 to .64% (*10* times higher).  The Jewish population 
increase falls below this, so we obviously know that such growth rates are 
possible.

Just as a comparison the 1750-1950 period has growth rates in the USSR at 
.82%, even given the slaughter of WW2 and Stalin's killings.  The total 
world population growth was approximetly .6%

Now, about that population doubling between 1800 and 1825.

First, Moran's methodology is, of course, bogus.  The European Jewish 
population increased from 1 500 000 to 2 730 000.  However, the *world* 
Jewish population increased from 2 500 000 to 3 281 000, an increase of only 
781 000 people as opposed to a European increase of 1 230 000.  How do you 
explain how the total world Jewish population increased by a lesser amount 
than the European?  The intuitive answer is migration.  An obvious response 
is that, like between 1650 and 1700, a great many Jews may have migrated 
into Europe.  The numbers alone don't give any indication, thus there is no 
evidence the numbers are bogus.  This rate of increase, BTW is 1.087%

Is there another population group that shows such a population increase?  If 
there is, that would negate Moran's conclusion that such numbers are 
impossible.

As a matter of fact there is such a group and they are rather near and dear 
to me. 

In 1684 the population of Quebec was approximetly 12 000 people.  In 1784, 
one hundred years later, the French population was 132 000, an average 
annual growth rate of a relatively monstrous 2.4% per year (H. Charbonneau, 
"Essai sur l'evolution demographique du Quebec de 1534 a 2034" _Cahiers 
Quebecois de demographie_, 13 (1984), p. 13).  

There were a total of about 15 000 immigrants into Quebec between 1600 and 
1700 (when immigration from France essentially ceased).  About 2/3 of that 
population returned to France for one reason or another or did not have a 
family, thus the population growth did not rely to any significant extant on 
migration (indeed, there has almost always been a net move of population 
*out* by Quebecois).  There was an average of 4.2 *married* children per 
couple (6.3 total children) which meant a population doubling within a 
single generation (less than 30 years) by birth *alone*.  These people lived 
before the sudden population jump Moran is concerned with, on the frontiers 
of the known world, with a harsher climate, during several wars etc etc.

Why did this sudden increase occur, when the numbers from Normandy, where 
most of the settlers came from, are nowhere close?  Several reasons.  The 
settlers married younger (almost 4 years earlier than their cousins back 
home), had 5 more years of life expectancy, and women had twice the rate of 
second marriages in Quebec as in France, thus leading to more children.  The 
last datapoint is explained by the fact that France, like most established 
countries, had about a 50/50 male female split so a widow didn't have much 
chance of a second marriage while most of the settlers in Quebec were male, 
thus they outnumbered females.  Given the fact that the odds were a woman 
would be a widow at a younger age (due to the lower marrying age), thus 
presumably still attractive to a man, and would live longer with a higher 
fertility rate, the odds of a second batch of kids could be very good.

This information is not new.  In 1776 Adam Smith noted that the American 
colonies were doubling their population every 20 or 25 years, mostly due to 
birth and not immigration (Livi-Bacci, p 56).  He also noted it was not 
unusual for an elderly colonist to see 100 descendants or more.  Back in 
Quebec, a couple named Jean Guyon and Mathurine Robin who landed in 1608 had 
2150 descendants by 1730.  That is a growth rate (for that family) of an 
incredible 5.72%  Given a generation of about 25 years, the family 
population had increased 1075 times in five generation.

Rabbits don't breed that fast.

So what does all this prove?

Tom Moran has no idea what he is talking about.  Not only is his (apparent) 
assumptions about population wrong he also blows it when he claims such 
numbers are unrealistic.  In fact, there is another population that has 
demonstrated growth *twice* that of what he claims is unrealistic for the 
Jews and they did it a full century earlier in an uncivilized frontier.

His methodology stinks.  He apparently refuses to consider large scale 
population movements as a cause of population changes in Europe.  He fails 
to see how the Jews could maintain a population increase given such things 
as wars and disease and pogroms when Russia-USSR managed an even *larger* 
growth rate after suffing through Czarist purges, famine, Stalin's purges, 
the Second World War and yet more famine.

Finally, he presents this information from 1931.  Information possibly six 
and a half decades out of date.  It may be accurate, it may not.  I doubt 
it's the only book on the subject to be written in the last 65 years.  Which 
leads one to wonder why he chose it.  Is it perhaps because it gives numbers 
that he thought "proved" there was intentional fiddling with the figures?

Too bad there is no such proof.


>Exaggerations, thorough fabrications - lies. Thats this aspect of the
>Holocaust story, as with the rest.      

Misinterpretation, incomprehension and outright stupidity.  That's this 
aspect of the denier method, as is the rest.

Yet another for the "Tom Moran screws up...again" file.

--
Keith Morrison
t08o@unb.ca


--end included text--



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